A population of forecast models predicts every coin's 24h, 72h and 7-day return daily from trend history. Each forecast is graded against what the price actually did. Once a day the clear loser is retired and a mutated child of the best model takes its place — the population improves over time. A forecast strategy always trades on the current champion.
| Model | Parameters | 24h hit rate | 72h hit rate | 7d hit rate | Avg error | Graded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift 10momentumgen 1 | lookback 10d | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Drift 30momentumgen 1 | lookback 30d | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Rubber bandmean reversiongen 1 | SMA20 · strength 0.50 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Trendline 30trendlinegen 1 | window 30d | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| Holt smootherHolt smoothinggen 1 | α 0.30 · β 0.10 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
| EMA cross 12/26EMA crossgen 1 | EMA 12/26 · scale 1.00 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Hit rate = how often the model called the direction right (last 14 days, graded forecasts only). Avg error is the gap between predicted and actual return in percentage points. Models need 30+ graded forecasts to compete for the crown; evolution starts at 60.
| Model | 24h hit rate | 72h hit rate | 7d hit rate | Avg error | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 📜 Holt smootherHolt smoothing | 52.3% | 51.9% | 52.5% | ±7.2pp | 206,321 |
| EMA cross 12/26EMA cross | 51.1% | 52.1% | 52.8% | ±6.1pp | 206,321 |
| Trendline 30trendline | 50.7% | 50.9% | 50.7% | ±6.3pp | 206,321 |
| Drift 30momentum | 50.3% | 50.7% | 50.8% | ±6.2pp | 206,321 |
| Drift 10momentum | 49.1% | 50.0% | 51.0% | ±7.0pp | 206,321 |
| Rubber bandmean reversion | 49.6% | 47.9% | 47.5% | ±5.8pp | 206,321 |
Walk-forward replay of stored daily candles: each day, every model predicted using only the history behind it, graded against what followed. 📜 marks the backtest champion — forecast strategies trade on it until a live champion emerges. Re-run with npx tsx scripts/backtest-forecasts.mts.
| Coin | predicted 24h | predicted 72h | predicted 7d |
|---|---|---|---|
| XPL Plasma | +3.10% | +1.80% | -0.78% |
| ZEC Zcash | +1.58% | +1.84% | +2.36% |
| SUN Sun Token | +1.31% | +0.21% | -1.98% |
| PEPE Pepe | +1.25% | +3.09% | +6.76% |
| TRX TRON | +1.04% | +0.16% | -1.59% |
| BCH Bitcoin Cash | +0.65% | +0.72% | +0.86% |
| ENA Ethena | +0.50% | -1.19% | -4.56% |
| VVV Venice Token | +0.39% | -0.83% | -3.27% |
| XDC XDC Network | +0.33% | -0.85% | -3.20% |
| GNO Gnosis | +0.21% | -1.13% | -3.81% |
Top 10 predicted 24h gainers, from the batch generated 02 Nov, 11:21 am. Predictions are paper-trading research, not financial advice.